A 'green' revolution in Iran is certainly something to hope for, but it seems unlikely. A crucial ingredient of a peaceful revolution is indifference by the military. If the security services have family members and associates sympathetic to protesters or participating, they will prefer change to bloodshed. But the opposite is true in Iran. Not only are the Revolutionary Guard fanatical, but there are a large population of basiji, paramilitary volunteers. The fanatic and progressive communities are too disjoint and unsympathetic to allow a peaceful transition. The only remaining hope is that a violent confrontation would threaten the Revolutionary Guard's economic interests (The BBC reports they control up to 1/3 of the economy). Money overrules religion anywhere.
