Ebola math

Previously I wrote about how overblown recent pandemic threats have been. I feel the opposite about Ebola. Most columns accurately report scary statistics in a reassuring tone. Others are blatantly dismissive.

Here are some graphs of cumulative global cases I made using data I got here. The data runs from 3/22/2014 through 11/18/2014. The number of cases follows a beautiful exponential.

The number of cases doubles every 29 days, and without containment or a vaccine, the entire population of the the earth may be exposed by the end of 2016.

Cumulative global cases:

Same data on a log scale:

Contraceptive exception

What is the main effect of the Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby ruling that 'religious' companies can refuse to provide contraceptives under Obamacare? It's really simple. Contraceptives are expensive. Perhaps the biggest part of the premiums that companies are forced to pay. It is now a huge competitive advantage to be a 'religious' company.

ISIS

The ISIS uprising is the most serious event in the middle east in a long time. Their goal of an Islamic state across Iraq and Syria was once though of as a pipe dream of irrational terrorists. Now it is within their grasp. If you still consider the group a band of terrorists that will soon be defeated, I would like to know who you think will defeat them. They are gaining recruits exponentially. The Iraqi army are mercenaries who flee at the first sign of a determined enemy. How long can they survive holed up in Baghdad against an enemy growing in strength so rapidly? Shiite volunteers, and perhaps the Iranians, could defend Shiite areas, but would be hard pressed to retake and 'occupy' Sunni areas. Precision airstrikes are useless against masses of foot soldiers. Obama is waffling about reconciliation. Who exactly will Malaki reconcile with?

Now is the time for realpolitik. This aspiring state must be crushed, and I fear the only way to do that is to go back in with ground troops. This would be a long haul indeed. The alternative is a new terrorist state that puts Iran to shame. This is Obama's Neville Chamberlain moment.

Inflation 2013

Here's the second annual unscientific cdude inflation shopping cart. I've added a few things.

Whole wheat bread, 24oz, store brand: $1.99/24 oz.
Gallon milk, whole, store brand: $3.29
Dozen eggs, large AA: $2.00
Campbell's chicken noodle soup: 2/$3.00
Tomato sauce, 8 oz.: $0.38
2 decks playing cards: $3.49
Inexpensive car, Hyundai Accent: $14,645
Ground beef, 5 lb chub, 73% lean: 12.98
Beer, Budweiser, 18 cans: 14.99
Scott toilet tissue, 12 pack: 9.99
Tide liquid, 150 oz: 17.99

For the repeat items the average increase was 11%. I think much of this is fluctuation (soup was 50%). But I was surprised by how stable many of the prices were. I think we will need a few years of data before we can safely conclude the government is full of it. I am not weighting the average as I am more interested in the devaluation of the dollar, rather than an increase in the nominal cost of living. The official rate is 1.5%