Thursday, May 7, 2020

Covid-19

Demonstrations have sprung up in many states by people who believe our response to Covid-19 is overblown. They may have a point. With better testing of silent infections, New York City announced that 20% of residents tested positive for antibodies. Combining that with the number of deaths in the same time frame provides a more reliable death rate than has been reported. Out of every 1000 people infected, roughly 7 have died, with a heavier burden among those over 80, or with heart disease, lung disease, or diabetes. For comparison, in any given year, out of 1000 people, 8 will die from all causes, with a heavier burden among those over 80, or with heart disease, lung disease, or diabetes.

So being infected with Covid-19 is only as risky as a year of living, or perhaps a year of life is just as risky as a Covid-19 infection. Your perception may depend on your tolerance for risk.

Number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 to date in all states: 78,000
Number of deaths from all causes in 2017 (reported by CDC): 2,813,503