An act of war

Hollande has called the Paris attacks an act of war, and indeed it is. I guess it's time to clean out Iraq and Syria. France is our ally, and we must join them. So a new war seems inevitable.

The hard part of all this is the exit strategy. The natural goals (after rapidly defeating IS of course) are to restore the colonial borders and stabilize the region politically. I would contend that these two goals may be incompatible. The Sunni regions simply do not like being ruled by Shia. But redrawing boundaries is unacceptable to crucial players. For example, if the Sunnis get a homeland, then so should the Kurds. And Turkey would never allow that.

So this one is especially difficult. My guess is the only possibility of avoiding a permanent occupation is strong de-facto autonomy for Sunnis and Kurds, and Iraq and Syria would be states in name only. No idea if this is really possible.

There would be one good result from this. It would be the second time a terrorist state (as opposed to isolated independent cells) committed suicide by a spectacular attack on westerners. I find it unlikely that pattern would repeat a third time. Take care not to awaken a sleeping giant.

Russians in Syria

A good starting point for understanding the Syrian civil war is Sunni-Shiite hostility. Before the civil war started, Syria was analogous to Saddam's Iraq in reverse. Both were ruled brutally by the minority sect. But in Syria it is the Shiites (the Alawite religion is a branch of Shiism) that rule over the majority Sunnis.

The west and the Sunni Arab world would like to depose Assad so that Syria could be democratic or ruled by Sunnis. There are certainly plenty of Sunnis in Syria opposed to Assad, in secret where Assad has control. But the educated ones who prefer liberal democracy are unlikely to try to overthrow him. And the Sunni extremists who are willing have a different agenda. They want a Sunni homeland and many have allied with disaffected Sunnis in Iraq under the Islamic State banner. They are interested in attacking Assad, but are perhaps more concerned with setting up their own separate country.

This is a four way conflict. Brutal mostly-Shiite Loyalists, brutal Islamic State, brutal Al Qaida (Sunni but enemies of IS), and a western backed opposition (maybe less brutal). The first two parties are big gorillas, and the last two are largely symbolic. We have chosen to back a mouse in a fight between gorillas.

Enter Russia. They (and of course Shiite Iran) are backing one of the Gorillas. This is a brilliant way to increase their influence and a wonderful opportunity to humiliate the west. It is no surprise they will attack the opposition, since their sole objective is to overthrow Assad. Thus the danger: the west and Russia are now militarily invested in opposite sides.

This presents a conundrum. Do we continue to arm the opposition and risk a proxy war with Russia where we are backing a mouse against their gorilla? Do we withdraw and maybe Assad can stabilize a broken Syria or even push out IS with Russian help, giving a huge victory for Putin and Iran? Or do we retaliate by arming Ukraine and crushing the Russian insurgents there?

Very dangerous indeed.

Inflation 2014

Here's the third annual unscientific cdude inflation shopping cart.

Whole wheat bread, 24oz, store brand: $2.00
Gallon milk, whole, store brand: $3.59
Dozen eggs, large AA: $2.09
Campbell's chicken noodle soup: $1.50
Tomato sauce, 8 oz.: $0.37
2 decks playing cards: $3.49
Hyundai Accent: $14,745
Ground beef, 5 lb chub, 73% lean: 15.98
Beer, Budweiser, 18 cans: 14.99
Scott toilet tissue, 12 pack: 9.99
Tide liquid, 150 oz: 17.99

The average increase was 3.5%. Last year I thought the soup price might be a fluctuation, but it has held up. Again, many prices are unnaturally stable. 7 out of 11 prices stayed within a penny (4 out of 7 held steady last time). The official rate is 0%.