The fate of New Zealand

New Zealand's response to Covid has been widely praised in the media. They controlled the outbreak with early aggressive quarantines, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing. Borders were closed and returning New Zealanders were required to undergo managed isolation.

The policies were entirely effective. By early August, New Zealand went over 100 days with no community spread. The country went to it's lowest alert level (contact tracing and border restrictions only) in early June. Everyday life was nearly normal, but the country was living in a bubble.

The long stretch without community transmission was broken on August 11, when 4 new cases arose. The country has returned to higher alert levels.

In seemingly unrelated news, there's a good chance the pandemic of 1890, which killed over a million people, was not influenza as has long been assumed, but rather a novel coronavirus called hCoV-OC43, which jumped from cows to humans. What makes this especially interesting is that OC43 is very common today, and is one of several virus species that cause the common cold. The implication is that we have developed a sort of "herd immunity" to the more severe effects of OC43. Those whose immune systems were vulnerable died off, and new generations are immunized naturally at a young age when there is little risk.

This presents an interesting conundrum to New Zealand and other countries with similar harsh approaches to Covid. If Covid-19 develops the same way OC43 supposedly did, then those countries will never develop herd immunity, and they will need to continue living in a bubble for at least 130 years.